The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, is expected to approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) at its next meeting on Sunday, October 5, according to a Reuters report citing three market sources.
The planned hike would continue the group’s shift away from deep output cuts, a strategy it reversed in April to regain market share and respond to pressure from the United States to lower oil prices. Since then, OPEC+ has raised production quotas by more than 2.5 million bpd around 2.4% of global demand after previously implementing steep reductions. At their peak, the cuts reached 5.85 million bpd, comprising voluntary reductions of 2.2 million bpd, an additional 1.65 million bpd from eight members, and 2.0 million bpd from the entire group.
The eight producers involved in voluntary cuts plan to fully unwind the 2.2 million bpd reduction by the end of September. For October, they began phasing out the second layer of 1.65 million bpd with a 137,000 bpd increase. The November rise under discussion would match or exceed that amount, though sources said a final decision has not yet been made.
OPEC+, which produces roughly half of the world’s oil, will meet online on October 5 to decide output levels for November. The United Arab Emirates has already been permitted to increase production by 300,000 bpd between April and September.
The production policy shift comes amid efforts to stabilise the oil market and boost member revenues. Crude prices, which were above $80 per barrel earlier this year, have mostly traded between $60 and $70 since OPEC+ began raising output in April. Prices climbed to their highest level since August 1 on Friday, rising above $70 per barrel, partly due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure that disrupted refining and exports.
Analysts note that actual production increases have so far lagged behind targets because many OPEC+ members are already operating near capacity.
For MSMEs in Africa and beyond, another production hike could influence fuel prices and logistics costs. While increased supply may help prevent sharp price spikes, ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions could keep energy markets volatile. Small businesses, particularly those reliant on transportation and imported goods, will need to monitor these shifts closely, as fluctuations in oil prices directly impact operating expenses and consumer demand.
