Fuel Prices Stay High Despite Declines, Keeping Pressure on Households and MSMEs
Nigeria’s downstream fuel market remained under intense pressure in November 2025, even as headline figures showed a year-on-year decline in prices, with persistently high pump costs for petrol and diesel continuing to squeeze households, transporters and small businesses across the country.
An analysis of November price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that average retail prices for both products stayed elevated nationwide, with only modest month-on-month movements and wide differences across states and zones. For many consumers and MSMEs, the relief expected from earlier price drops failed to materialise, as fuel costs remained well above levels that support stable operating margins.
Petrol prices, in particular, continued to hover around and above the psychologically important N1,000 per litre mark in most states. Nationally, the average retail price stood at N1,061.35 per litre in November 2025, representing a 12.6 per cent decline from the N1,214.17 recorded in the same month of 2024. However, compared with October 2025, when the average was N1,052.31, prices rose by 0.86 per cent, signalling that the downward trend may be losing momentum.
Regional patterns remained pronounced. Northern states, especially in the North-east and North-west, recorded some of the highest petrol prices in the country, reflecting logistics challenges, security-related supply risks and long distances from major supply hubs. Borno posted the highest average price at N1,133.86 per litre, followed by Sokoto at N1,118.83 and Kogi at N1,111.00. In contrast, parts of the South-west remained relatively cheaper, although still expensive by historical standards, with Oyo at N997.39, Nasarawa at N1,015.12 and Lagos at N1,021.14.
On a zonal basis, the North-east recorded the highest average petrol price at N1,084.04 per litre, while the South-west had the lowest average at N1,036.12. For transport operators and MSMEs that depend heavily on petrol-powered logistics, these regional differences translate directly into uneven cost structures and pricing pressures.
Diesel prices followed a similar pattern but at a higher and more burdensome level for businesses. The national average retail price of Automotive Gas Oil stood at N1,409.61 per litre in November 2025, down by 2.57 per cent from November 2024 but still far above what many manufacturers, agro-processors and logistics firms consider sustainable. On a month-on-month basis, diesel prices rose by 0.79 per cent from N1,398.57 in October, reinforcing concerns about cost stability.
State-level diesel data showed sharp contrasts. Niger, Jigawa and Enugu recorded the highest average prices at N1,477.57, N1,477.31 and N1,468.29 per litre, respectively. The lowest prices were seen in Kebbi at N1,308.94, Katsina at N1,315.78 and Nasarawa at N1,325.29. Zonal figures placed the South-east as the most expensive for diesel at an average of N1,419.34 per litre, while the South-south recorded the lowest average at N1,400.58.
For MSMEs, the implications are significant. Diesel remains the backbone of power generation and heavy transport for many small manufacturers and service providers, meaning sustained high prices directly erode profitability, raise production costs and push up consumer prices. The modest year-on-year decline offers little comfort when absolute price levels remain elevated and month-on-month increases persist.
Overall, the November data presents a mixed picture. While the double-digit annual drop in petrol prices suggests gradual adjustment following subsidy removal and exchange-rate changes, the continued rise on a monthly basis and the stubbornly high cost of diesel underline the fragility of the recovery. For small businesses already grappling with weak demand and high operating costs, fuel prices remain a central challenge shaping decisions on pricing, scale and survival.
