The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has signalled growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic reforms, noting that recent macroeconomic adjustments are beginning to deliver tangible results. In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), titled Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces, the IMF upgraded Nigeria’s growth projection to 4.4 per cent for 2025, representing a 0.2 percentage point increase from its October forecast. Growth is expected to moderate slightly to 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 2027, still above previous estimates, reflecting improved stability and a gradually strengthening outlook.
The IMF highlighted that favourable domestic policies, including tighter monetary measures, exchange rate adjustments, and fiscal reforms, alongside supportive global conditions, have contributed to the positive outlook. Commodity-exporting economies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, have benefited from firmer prices for gold, copper, and coffee, boosting export earnings and fiscal revenues.
Deniz Igan, Division Chief in the IMF’s Research Department, said, “Sub-Saharan Africa has seen upgrades to growth forecasts for 2025. Growth is now projected at 4.4 per cent for Nigeria, with 4.6 per cent expected in 2026 and 2027. These improvements are driven by a combination of commodity price strength, macroeconomic stabilisation, and ongoing structural reforms in key regional economies.”
However, the IMF cautioned that downside risks remain, particularly for low-income and fragile economies. Cuts in international development assistance and potential sudden tightening in global financial conditions could undermine growth gains, particularly for countries still adjusting to reform-induced pressures.
On the same day, the Executive Director and Chief Executive of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, disclosed that Nigeria’s non-oil exports reached an all-time high of $6.1 billion in 2025, representing an 11.5 per cent increase from $5.46 billion in 2024. The figure marks the highest recorded value for formally documented non-oil exports since the council’s inception, underscoring the sector’s growing contribution to economic diversification and resilience.
According to Ayeni, exports spanned 281 products across agricultural commodities, processed and semi-processed goods, industrial inputs, and solid minerals. The key commodities included cocoa and derivatives, urea, cashew nuts, sesame seeds, gold doré, aluminium and copper ingots, soybeans, and rubber. Total export volume reached 8.02 million metric tonnes, a 10 per cent increase from the previous year.
In terms of destination, Nigeria exported non-oil products to 120 countries, with the Netherlands, Brazil, and India emerging as the top three markets by value. Exports to the Netherlands rose by 32.46 per cent, driven by cocoa and sesame products, while exports to Brazil increased by 19.07 per cent. Within Africa, 36 countries received Nigerian non-oil exports, with ECOWAS member states accounting for $271.26 million, despite a 13 per cent decrease from 2024 due to the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the bloc.
Ayeni emphasised that the NEPC continues to work with stakeholders to formalise informal trade channels, enhance market access, and equip exporters with tools, capacity, and skills to compete globally. She added, “2026 promises to be a landmark year for non-oil exports. NEPC remains committed to increasing both the volume and value of exports, expanding market access, and aligning with the Renewed Hope Agenda to drive job creation and reduce poverty.”
The combined upward revision of Nigeria’s growth forecast and record non-oil export performance reflects the growing impact of macroeconomic reforms, improved policy predictability, and rising investor confidence. While challenges remain, including global financial uncertainties and regional trade dynamics, the outlook indicates steady progress toward economic diversification and sustainable growth.
