The Central Bank of Nigeria and leading economists have projected stronger economic growth and a moderation in inflation in 2026, citing improving macroeconomic fundamentals and the impact of ongoing reforms.
The projection was unveiled at a hybrid roundtable organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria Centre for Financial Studies in collaboration with B. Adedipe Associates. The Lagos-based event was held under the theme “12th Edition National Economic Outlook: Implications for Businesses in Nigeria in 2026.”
Speaking at the forum, the CBN Deputy Governor in charge of the Economic Policy Directorate, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, said Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product was projected to grow by 4.49 per cent in 2026. He added that inflation was expected to ease to 12.94 per cent, reflecting reduced price pressures and the gradual effects of economic reforms.
Abdullahi said the outlook was driven by expansion in the non-oil sector, improved crude oil production, rising private sector investment and a more stable macroeconomic environment. He noted that Nigeria recorded a balance of payments surplus of about 3.81 billion dollars in 2025, reversing deficits recorded in the previous two years.
According to him, foreign exchange conditions are expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, supported by foreign exchange reforms, higher oil revenues, increased diaspora remittances and improved investor confidence. He disclosed that external reserves are projected to exceed 50 billion dollars in 2026, while inflation is expected to continue easing due to lower food and energy pressures and the lagged effects of monetary tightening.
Represented at the event by the Director of Monetary Policy, Dr Victor Oboh, Abdullahi said the apex bank would sustain reforms aimed at strengthening price stability and boosting external sector resilience. He urged banks to increase credit to productive sectors such as manufacturing, agribusiness, and small and medium enterprises, noting that access to finance remains critical to growth and job creation.
Delivering the keynote address, Prof Biodun Adedipe, Chief Consultant at B. Adedipe Associates Ltd., said Nigeria’s economy was expected to perform better in 2026 than in 2025. He described 2026 as a stabilisation year characterised by exchange rate stability, declining inflation, rising external reserve,s and a strong stock market.
Adedipe said Nigerians were already beginning to feel the effects of reforms, pointing to the easing prices of some staple food items. He called for sustained policy focus on boosting domestic production, especially in agriculture, as a pathway to further reducing inflation and supporting economic growth.
Also speaking, the President of the Nigerian Economic Society, Dr Baba Musa, said Nigeria’s economic fundamentals were improving but cautioned that outcomes in 2026 would largely depend on effective reform implementation. He stressed that coordinated monetary, fiscal, and tax reforms would be critical, urging businesses to invest in capacity expansion, technology, and new markets to remain competitive.
Earlier, the Chairman of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria Council, Prof Pius Olanrewaju, said the forum was designed to set the tone for economic policy discussions in 2026. He noted that new tax reforms that took effect on January 1 are expected to broaden the tax base, strengthen public finances and reduce dependence on oil revenue, while offering protection for small businesses and low-income earners.
For MSMEs, the outlook suggests a potentially more stable operating environment in 2026, with easing inflation, improved access to credit and stronger consumer demand expected to support business expansion and job creation.
