Cocoa futures fell for a second straight session on Friday as mounting concerns grew that record-high prices and added tariff pressures are starting to weaken global chocolate consumption.
In New York, December cocoa closed at $7,673 a tonne, down $103 or 1.3 per cent, while September cocoa in London slipped £53, or 1 per cent, to £5,318. The dip follows a sharp rally earlier in August that pushed prices to two-month highs, fuelled by adverse weather in West Africa and ongoing supply chain strains.
The latest weakness reflects growing evidence that the industry is grappling with demand erosion. Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Sprüngli in July cut its full-year profit margin forecast after reporting a steeper-than-expected fall in first-half chocolate sales. Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest bulk chocolate producer, has also issued two sales volume downgrades within three months, warning of falling annual output after reporting a 9.5 per cent sales drop between March and May—its sharpest decline in over a decade.
Retail trends confirm the pressure. Consumers, faced with higher shelf prices, are cutting back on chocolate purchases, forcing manufacturers to trim production. Analysts say this shift in consumption patterns is now filtering into the futures market, tempering recent gains.
Still, traders believe any steep fall in cocoa prices may be limited by tightening supplies. Exchange-monitored inventories in US ports fell to 2.16 million bags on Friday, their lowest in more than three months.
West Africa, which produces over 60 per cent of the world’s cocoa, remains at the heart of global supply concerns. Earlier in August, prices climbed after reports of unusually cold and dry weather in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa grower. Data from the Commodity Weather Group revealed that the 30 days leading to August 15 marked the driest period in 46 years. The rainfall shortage is threatening pod retention ahead of the main harvest in October, while also fuelling black pod disease across farms in Ghana and Nigeria.
Export data from Abidjan points to a slowdown in momentum. Farmers in Côte d’Ivoire have delivered 1.79 million tonnes to ports so far this season, up nearly 6 per cent compared to last year, but significantly slower than the 35 per cent growth pace recorded in December.
Quality concerns are also rising. Processors report that 5 to 6 per cent of mid-crop deliveries are failing quality tests, compared to about 1 per cent during the larger main crop. Truckloads of beans have been rejected outright, with late-season rains blamed for stunted development. Rabobank projects Côte d’Ivoire’s mid-crop at 400,000 tonnes this year, a 9 per cent decline from last year’s 440,000 tonnes.
Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest supplier, is also facing a weaker outlook. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasts 2025/26 output at 305,000 tonnes, representing an 11 per cent decline from the previous year. While exports in June edged up slightly to 14,597 tonnes, industry officials warn that rising disease prevalence and ageing trees will limit recovery prospects in the near term.
For both producers and chocolate makers, the combination of high costs, weather challenges, and fragile demand is shaping an uncertain outlook for the global cocoa market.
