The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has highlighted the significant impact of Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery on global Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) markets, particularly in Europe.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery, which commenced operations in January last year, began producing petrol in September, marking a turning point for Nigeria, which had previously relied entirely on fuel imports. Since production started, the refinery has exported petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to countries within and outside Africa.
In its latest report, OPEC stated that the Dangote refinery’s ramp-up of gasoline exports has reduced Europe’s petroleum product exports to Nigeria. This development is reshaping the European PMS market, as surplus volumes now require new markets.
“The ongoing ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and its gasoline exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market. Nigeria’s continued gasoline production will free up volumes in international markets, requiring flow adjustments,” the report noted.
OPEC also pointed out that high gasoline inventories at storage hubs in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp are expected to persist, with the Atlantic Basin facing supply surpluses amid reduced winter demand.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report revealed that Nigeria’s average daily crude production reached 1.507 million barrels in December, up from 1.477 million in November. However, data provided by the Nigerian government pegged December production slightly lower at 1.485 million bpd, aligning with figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
Additionally, OPEC noted that reduced oil product imports in late 2024 had bolstered Nigeria’s external sector outlook.
The Dangote Refinery, valued at $20 billion, is now ranked above Europe’s 10 largest refineries. With a capacity to refine 650,000bpd, it surpasses Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands (404,000bpd) and BP’s Rotterdam facility (380,000bpd). Other major European refineries, including TotalEnergies Antwerp (338,000bpd) and Orlen Plock in Poland (327,000bpd), also fall short of Dangote’s capacity.
As Dangote Refinery transforms Nigeria’s fuel production landscape, it is reducing the country’s dependence on imports and reshaping global fuel trade dynamics. With its unmatched capacity in Africa, the refinery is poised to play a central role in the international energy market, influencing fuel flows and market structures worldwide.
