A new report has revealed that the Dangote Oil Refinery will increase Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to $322 billion by 2025. The report, titled Impact of Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Economy, was released by Data Services & Resources Ltd. It predicts that, without the refinery, Nigeria’s GDP would grow by 3.34% in 2024 and 4.13% by 2030. With the refinery in operation, these figures are expected to rise to 4.15% in 2024 and 6.21% by 2030.
The report also highlights that Nigeria’s GDP at current market prices will climb from N234.43 trillion in 2023 to N304.8 trillion in 2024 and further to N364.94 trillion in 2025. By 2030, it projects GDP to reach N806.91 trillion.
Managing Director of Data Services & Resources Ltd, Afolabi Olowookere, stated that the refinery’s influence would boost GDP to $370.49 billion in 2026 and $446.98 billion by 2029.
The Dangote Refinery, which started initial production in January 2024, is expected to have a significant positive impact on Nigeria’s economy. It has a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, and by early 2025, will produce 10.4 million tonnes of gasoline, 4.6 million tonnes of diesel, and 4 million tonnes of aviation fuel annually.
Additionally, the refinery is set to contribute to Nigeria’s fiscal sustainability by creating jobs, reducing reliance on imported petroleum products, and improving the trade balance through increased exports. The reduction in fuel subsidies and the generation of substantial tax revenues from the refinery will strengthen the country’s fiscal position, providing resources for infrastructure and social projects.
The Nigerian government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), initially held a 20% stake in the refinery, but this has since decreased to 7.2%.
Moreover, the refinery is expected to drive growth across Nigeria’s oil refining, chemical, pharmaceutical, plastic, rubber, and cement sectors.
As of October 1, 2024, the Federal Government began selling crude oil to Dangote Refinery and other local refineries in naira, a move confirmed by Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy. Key stakeholders, including Petroleum Minister Heineken Lokpobiri, Dangote Group Vice President Edwin Devakumar, and NNPC Group Managing Director Mele Kyari, have affirmed the commencement of this strategic initiative.
