Recent data from the Nigerian Communications Commission has confirmed that Nigeria will fall short of its 70 per cent broadband penetration target set for the end of December 2025, dealing a setback to the country’s digital inclusion ambitions and raising fresh concerns for small businesses that rely on internet access to operate and scale.
Under the National Broadband Plan 2020–2025, Nigeria committed to reaching 70 per cent broadband penetration by the end of 2025. However, NCC figures show that as of October 2025, broadband penetration stood at 49.89 per cent, with about 108 million broadband subscriptions nationwide. With only weeks left in the year, industry observers say closing the more than 20 percentage-point gap is no longer realistic.
The data highlights a slow and uneven growth pattern throughout 2025. Broadband penetration rose modestly from 48.15 per cent in April to 48.81 per cent in May, before slipping slightly in June and July. Growth resumed in August and September, eventually reaching 49.89 per cent in October, but the pace has remained far below what would be required to meet the national target.
Earlier projections had been more optimistic. In 2023, the regulator had reassured Nigerians that the country would cross the 50 per cent penetration threshold by the end of that year and possibly exceed the 70 per cent target before 2025. Those expectations were partly driven by the telecoms sector’s rising contribution to gross domestic product, which peaked at 16 per cent in the second quarter of 2023. By the second quarter of 2025, however, the sector’s GDP contribution had declined to 9.2 per cent, reflecting broader economic pressures and investment challenges.
For micro, small, and medium enterprises, the missed broadband target has practical implications. Limited and unreliable internet access continues to constrain digital payments, online marketing, remote work, logistics coordination, and access to e-commerce platforms, particularly for businesses operating outside major urban centres. Many MSMEs in the informal sector also struggle to adopt digital tools that could improve productivity and formalisation because broadband coverage remains weak or unaffordable in their locations.
Industry operators have acknowledged the slow pace of expansion but argue that ongoing investments in network infrastructure will begin to yield more visible results from 2026. According to operators, accelerating broadband growth will require widespread connectivity supported by extensive fibre optic deployment from coastal landing points to inland regions, upgrades of existing cell sites currently running on microwave links, and expanded fibre-to-the-home connections. These investments, they say, are already being factored into current expansion plans, though their impact will take time to materialise.
As Nigeria prepares to transition to a new broadband strategy beyond 2025, the latest figures underscore the need for more aggressive infrastructure rollout, policy stability, and lower deployment costs. For MSMEs, faster broadband penetration is not just a technology issue but a key driver of competitiveness, job creation, and inclusion in the digital economy.
