Lagos, Africa’s largest city, is facing a worsening climate crisis that could lead to economic losses of up to $29 billion if urgent action is not taken. A new report by the Lagos State Ministry of Planning and Budget, The Lagos Economic Development Update (LEDU) 2025, warns that rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and poor urban planning are threatening the state’s economy, infrastructure, and food security.
As a low-lying coastal city with over 27 million residents, Lagos is particularly vulnerable to flooding and coastal erosion. The report highlights how these climate hazards are already disrupting transportation, agriculture, and public health, deepening socio-economic inequalities and increasing financial risks.
Recurrent flooding has become a major crisis, damaging roads, bridges, and transit systems while driving up transportation costs. The report warns that these disruptions will significantly reduce economic efficiency, particularly in a city where commercial activities rely on smooth logistics. Lagos’ critical economic zones—ports, industrial hubs, and residential areas—are located in flood-prone regions, making them highly susceptible to extreme weather events.
“These disruptions could significantly impair Lagos’ contribution to Nigeria’s GDP, destabilizing both local and national economies,” the report states.
Poor urban planning and an overburdened drainage system are compounding the problem. Rapid urbanization has led to uncontrolled development in flood-prone areas, while existing drainage infrastructure is unable to handle rising water levels.
“The lack of adequate drainage systems and the overburdening of existing infrastructure increase the frequency and severity of urban flooding,” the report warns.
Climate change is also taking a toll on agriculture, reducing crop yields and threatening food security. Irregular rainfall patterns are making it harder for farmers to plan their planting and harvesting cycles, leading to food shortages and rising prices.
“Climate change disrupts rainfall patterns, reduces agricultural yields, and threatens food security,” the report states.
Food inflation is already squeezing household incomes, increasing poverty levels, and widening socio-economic gaps across the state. If left unchecked, this could trigger more severe economic instability.
Public health is another growing concern. The report warns that rising temperatures, increased flooding, and worsening water scarcity are fueling the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and cholera. Poor sanitation and water contamination during floods further exacerbate health risks, putting additional strain on Lagos’ healthcare system.
“With increasing cases of climate-related diseases, public health costs are expected to rise significantly,” the report notes.
To tackle these threats, the Lagos State Office of Climate Change and Circular Economy (OCCE) has introduced several initiatives, including:
– Climate Action Plan (2020–2025): A roadmap for reducing carbon emissions and improving climate resilience.
– International Partnerships: Collaborations with global organizations like the UN and Carbonivity to secure climate finance.
– Circular Economy Programs:Initiatives promoting waste reduction, recycling, and sustainable production.
– Public Awareness Campaigns: Educational efforts to engage citizens on climate risks and adaptation strategies.
– Carbon Registry: A system to track emissions and ensure Lagos meets its climate targets.
However, the report identifies key gaps in Lagos’ climate response. Regional collaboration with neighboring Ogun State remains weak, hindering metropolitan-wide resilience planning. Funding constraints are also limiting the scope of climate initiatives, while weak monitoring frameworks make it difficult to track progress.
With Lagos at the heart of Nigeria’s economy, the stakes are high. Without decisive action, the city risks deeper economic losses, reduced investor confidence, and worsening living conditions for millions of residents. Strengthening infrastructure, improving urban planning, and securing sustainable financing will be critical to mitigating climate risks and ensuring Lagos’ long-term resilience.
