Nigeria is edging closer to self-reliance in cooking gas supply, yet households continue to face rising prices that show little connection to the country’s growing domestic production capacity.
Official data released by the Federal Government show that Nigeria’s total liquefied petroleum gas consumption stood at 52,800 metric tonnes in 2025, with local marketers supplying 45,800 metric tonnes, representing about 87 per cent of total demand. Imports accounted for just 7,100 metric tonnes, or roughly 13 per cent, underscoring a steady decline in dependence on foreign LPG as domestic output expands.
The figures, compiled by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, highlight a structural shift in Nigeria’s gas market. Investments in gas processing plants and refineries have tilted supply firmly in favour of local production, reversing years of heavy reliance on imported cooking gas.
However, this progress has not translated into price relief for consumers. Market data show that the average price of a 12.5kg cylinder rose from N17,432 in January 2025 to N20,609 by July. By October and November, retail prices had jumped sharply, with cooking gas selling for over N2,000 per kilogram in many locations, depending on logistics and outlet type. The spike placed additional strain on household budgets, particularly for low- and middle-income earners who depend on LPG as a cleaner and safer alternative to kerosene and firewood.
Nigeria’s LPG market has historically been import-driven, but that pattern has changed with increased output from facilities such as NLNG Trains 1–6, the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, and gas plants at Gbaran-Ubie, Soku, and Obite. According to regulatory data, several of these facilities operated at utilisation rates ranging from about 53 per cent to over 100 per cent in 2025, reflecting strong upstream performance.
Despite this, industry operators argue that downstream challenges continue to keep prices elevated. High transportation costs, inadequate storage infrastructure, distribution bottlenecks and lingering import-linked pricing structures have combined to push retail prices higher, even as local producers dominate supply. Marketers note that the cost of moving LPG across long distances and weak logistics networks often outweigh the benefits of local production.
Monthly supply data show that domestic LPG production consistently outpaced imports throughout 2025, anchoring the country’s cooking gas market. Average daily consumption stood at about 4,380 metric tonnes, while average monthly supply hovered around 4,400 metric tonnes, suggesting that availability alone was not the key constraint.
In December, domestic producers supplied roughly 3,700 metric tonnes of LPG per day, accounting for about 71 per cent of total supply, while imports made up the remaining 29 per cent. Yet retail prices during the same period ranged between N1,120 and N1,600 per kilogram, depending on region and logistics costs. Analysts point to a persistent disconnect between strong upstream output and downstream pricing outcomes.
Data from the regulator also showed robust gas supply performance across the wider gas value chain. NLNG’s Trains 1–6 operated at over 82 per cent utilisation, the Gbaran-Ubie Gas Plant exceeded 86 per cent, and the Soku Gas Plant surpassed its nameplate capacity. In total, Nigeria supplied an average of 4.787 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day in December, spread across exports, power generation, industrial use and the domestic market.
Amid these developments, concerns are growing that Nigeria’s gas strategy may be skewed too heavily towards exports at the expense of domestic utilisation. An economics professor has warned that prioritising gas exports for foreign exchange earnings could undermine long-term economic development if domestic gas-to-power and gas-to-industry objectives are neglected.
In a personal statement on Nigeria’s gas policy trade-offs, he argued that while foreign exchange inflows are important, they do not automatically translate into broad-based growth. According to him, persistent power shortages, weak industrial capacity and limited value addition impose higher long-term costs on the economy than the short-term gains from increased gas exports.
He noted that Nigeria’s policy framework already provides guidance for balancing competing priorities. The 2017 National Gas Policy and the Petroleum Industry Act, he said, rest on three interconnected pillars: gas-based industrialisation, gas-to-power for domestic growth and gas exports for revenue. Allowing one pillar to dominate the others, he warned, risks weakening the overall strategy.
For households and small businesses, the implications are immediate. Rising cooking gas prices increase living costs and operating expenses for food vendors, small restaurants and informal enterprises that rely on LPG daily. Without improvements in storage, transportation and pricing efficiency, Nigeria’s growing gas output may continue to deliver limited relief at the consumer level.
Analysts say the real measure of success for Nigeria’s gas sector will not be export volumes or foreign exchange earnings alone, but whether increased production lowers energy costs, supports industrial growth and improves living standards. Until then, the paradox remains that a country producing most of its cooking gas is still struggling to make it affordable for its people.
