As global inflation begins to cool in most major economies, Nigeria’s inflation continues to remain high. Both Nigeria and the United States are set to release critical economic data this week, with inflation and oil production figures topping the agenda.
OPEC to Release Nigeria’s Oil Output for October
On Tuesday, November 12, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will announce Nigeria’s oil production for October. Nigeria’s average crude output in September was 1.324 million barrels per day, a slight decline from the previous month’s 1.352 million barrels. Despite this drop, Nigeria retains its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, significantly outpacing Libya, which suffered production setbacks due to key oil field shutdowns.
This decrease in oil production raises concerns, particularly with the potential impact of a Donald Trump presidential comeback in the U.S. Global oil prices are already reacting to the political shift, which could place further pressure on Nigeria’s already strained oil revenues. With oil accounting for nearly 90% of Nigeria’s revenue, any shortfall in output may worsen economic challenges, especially as the country struggles to meet both its OPEC production targets and local refinery demands.
UK to Release Unemployment Figures
The United Kingdom will also release its unemployment data on Tuesday. In August, the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4% from 4.1%, with average regular earnings growth slowing to 4.9%, marking the lowest growth in over two years. This decrease is expected to contribute to the Bank of England’s efforts to reduce interest rates, which were recently cut to 4.75%.
U.S. to Report Inflation Numbers for October
On Wednesday, November 13, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. U.S. inflation fell to 2.4% year-on-year in September, offering further evidence that inflationary pressures are cooling. The Federal Reserve has already responded by lowering interest rates twice in recent months. As inflation moves within the target range, analysts predict further rate cuts in the near future.
Nigeria’s October Inflation Report to Be Released
On Friday, November 15, Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the inflation data for October. In September, Nigeria’s inflation surged to 32.7%, driven by increased fuel prices. Analysts predict the inflation rate for October will rise to 33%, citing additional fuel price hikes as a key factor. The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) rose to over N1,000 per litre in several states, exacerbating inflationary pressures on energy and transport costs.
Experts at CardinalStone Research foresee a continued uptick in core inflation due to the ongoing fuel price increases, which could lead to further strain on Nigeria’s economy in the months ahead.With these reports set to shape the economic landscape, Nigerian MSMEs and the broader economy face an uncertain outlook as inflation and oil production challenges continue to evolve.
