Private petroleum depots across Lagos and other major fuel trading hubs have raised the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit to as high as N800 per litre, tightening margins for marketers and increasing the likelihood of higher pump prices that could further strain small businesses nationwide.
Data from petroleumprice.ng show that average depot prices rose sharply within 48 hours, reflecting growing anxiety over supply conditions and replacement costs. In Lagos, prices moved unevenly across depots. The Dangote depot, which has remained the lowest-priced supplier in recent months, sold petrol at N703 per litre on Friday, slightly higher than N702.50 recorded on Wednesday, December 31, 2025. While this adjustment was marginal, other depots implemented much steeper increases.
Eterna and Integrated depots raised prices to N800 per litre on Friday, up from N726 per litre earlier in the week at Shellplux and AIPEC, representing a jump of about N74 per litre in just two days. Aiteo and Lister depots also adjusted prices upward, selling petrol at N780 per litre compared with the N750–N760 range recorded midweek.
The impact has been more pronounced in Warri, one of Nigeria’s key petroleum logistics centres, where tighter supply lines and higher transportation costs often accelerate price movements. Matrix Energy and other major depots sold petrol at N800 per litre on Wednesday. Still, prices climbed to as high as N805 per litre by Friday as marketers repositioned volumes ahead of possible scarcity.
The latest surge comes weeks after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut its petrol gantry price from N828 to N699 per litre in December, a move that temporarily eased prices across the market. That reduction, which took effect on December 11, 2025, marked the refinery’s 20th price adjustment of the year and forced many import-dependent marketers to sell below their landing costs.
Market operators now link the current repricing to the shutdown of the refinery’s petrol unit, which had emerged as a major domestic supplier following fuel subsidy removal. With that supply temporarily curtailed, private depot owners have begun repricing available stock, citing higher replacement costs, exchange rate volatility and uncertainty around import schedules.
Industry sources say importers are attempting to recover losses incurred during December’s aggressive price competition, while also factoring in potential supply tightness in January due to the refinery’s ongoing plant upgrade. Some depot operators are reportedly holding back volumes in storage, betting that any supply disruption will allow them to sell at prices above their landing costs.
However, analysts warn that this strategy may be short-lived if local refining output rebounds and competition intensifies again. Once supply normalises, price resistance from large domestic producers could quickly reshape the market.
External factors are also adding pressure. Brent crude closed at $60.20 per barrel on Friday, while the naira weakened further in the parallel market to around N1,495 to the dollar, compared with N1,475 earlier in the week. For fuel marketers and downstream operators, these dynamics are increasing financing costs and squeezing already thin margins.
Depot price movements typically precede adjustments at filling stations, and industry watchers caution that if current trends persist, retail petrol prices could move beyond N700 per litre in several cities. For micro, small and medium-sized enterprises that rely heavily on petrol for power generation, logistics and distribution, sustained increases would translate into higher operating costs, weaker cash flow and pressure on pricing for goods and services.
Since full deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector, petrol prices have been driven by market forces including crude oil prices, exchange rates, logistics and supply availability. While local refining had raised expectations of greater price stability, the latest developments highlight how vulnerable supply dynamics remain, particularly for businesses operating in an economy still heavily dependent on petrol-powered activity.
