Poverty levels in Nigeria are projected to worsen significantly, with as many as 141 million people, representing about 62 percent of the population, expected to be living in poverty by 2026, according to PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 titled “Turning macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth.”
The report indicates that despite recent policy measures aimed at stabilising the economy, weak real income growth combined with persistently high living costs is likely to push more households into poverty over the next two years. PwC estimates that Nigeria’s poverty rate will rise to 62 percent by 2026, reflecting the continued strain of sluggish income growth and lingering inflationary pressures.
PwC notes that most Nigerians are unlikely to see income increases that meaningfully offset rising costs in the near term. Even as inflation gradually moderates, the firm explains that the underlying cost structure of the economy suggests affordability gains for households will remain limited, particularly for essential goods and services.
A key factor driving the rise in poverty, according to the report, is the consumption pattern of low-income households. Food accounts for as much as 70 percent of total spending among poorer Nigerians, making them highly vulnerable to food price increases. With food inflation remaining elevated, these households are disproportionately exposed to price shocks. PwC adds that easing headline inflation alone may not bring relief, as energy costs, logistics expenses, and exchange rate pass-through effects are expected to keep food and essential goods prices high.
For small businesses and informal enterprises, the implications are significant. Rising poverty weakens household purchasing power, reduces demand for goods and services, and tightens cash flows for MSMEs that rely heavily on local consumers. As more Nigerians struggle to meet basic needs, domestic consumption could slow further, limiting growth opportunities for businesses and affecting overall productivity.
PwC warns that a sustained increase in poverty poses broader risks to Nigeria’s economic stability. A larger population under financial stress could strain public finances, undermine human capital development, and slow economic recovery. Without strong job creation, productivity improvements, and effective social protection measures, the firm cautions that meaningful poverty reduction may remain difficult to achieve.
The report builds on earlier PwC assessments. In 2025, the firm warned that rising inflation, higher interest rates, and naira depreciation could push an additional 13 million Nigerians below the national poverty line. In 2023, it also projected higher operating costs and weaker revenues for Nigerian businesses following the impact of recent economic reforms.
While the federal government has announced plans, including proposed cash transfers of N75,000 to millions of vulnerable Nigerians, PwC maintains that deeper structural responses are needed. The firm recommends sustained macroeconomic stability, reforms to improve food supply, and increased investment in agriculture and logistics to help ease cost pressures on households and support more inclusive economic growth.
