A new report by SBM Intelligence has revealed the devastating impact of Nigeria’s farmer-herder crisis, which has displaced over 2.2 million people and severely disrupted food production. The conflict, which has expanded beyond the Middle Belt into other regions, continues to fuel economic hardship, drive up food prices, and threaten national stability.
The report, titled A Threat to National Stability: How the Escalating Conflict Between Herders and Farming Communities in Nigeria’s Middle Belt Has Spread South While Maintaining Its Grip on the Country’s Food Basket (2019-2025), highlights how six years of escalating violence have turned the struggle over grazing land into a widespread security and humanitarian emergency.
In Benue State alone, more than 300,000 displaced persons now live in makeshift camps, struggling under dire conditions. Across Nigeria’s agricultural heartland, insecurity has forced farmers to abandon their lands, leading to food shortages and rising inflation. The crisis has also crippled rural economies reliant on farming and livestock, deepening poverty and unemployment.
What began as land disputes has evolved into a larger security challenge, entangled with organized crime. Armed groups have taken advantage of the instability, fueling cattle rustling, banditry, and kidnappings. Despite government interventions, including the National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP) and state-level anti-open grazing laws, efforts to resolve the crisis have been inconsistent, hampered by political resistance, funding gaps, and logistical setbacks.
As the violence spreads southward to states like Edo and Ondo, concerns over a national food crisis grow. SBM Intelligence warns that without urgent intervention, the situation could spiral further out of control, undermining economic recovery efforts.
The report calls for stronger security measures to curb arms proliferation and dismantle criminal networks, agricultural reforms to support displaced farmers, and improved conflict resolution mechanisms to address long-standing tensions between herders and farmers. Without decisive action, millions more could face displacement and hunger, worsening an already fragile national crisis.
